Would Putin Roll the Nuclear Dice?
Posted on Tuesday November 1 2022
By Steven Pifer, Time, October 18, 2022
Since Russia launched its most recent invasion of Ukraine in February, Moscow has threatened—sometimes subtly, other times explicitly—nuclear escalation should the war not go its way. Ukraine and the West have to take such threats seriously. But the Kremlin also needs to take their probable responses seriously and would have to weigh the substantial risks and costs of using a nuclear weapon.
Shortly after Russian forces assaulted Ukraine on Feb. 24, Vladimir Putin ordered a “special combat readiness” status for Russian nuclear forces. But it’s unclear what that means since the Pentagon has consistently said it sees no change in Russia’s nuclear posture. The alert may have amounted to little more than additional command post staffing.
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We can’t afford US Congress wavering in its support for Ukraine
Posted on Tuesday November 1 2022
By Steven Pifer, The Guardian, October 27, 2022
On 24 October, 30 members of the House Democratic Progressive Caucus released a letter to Joe Biden calling for a “proactive diplomatic push” on Kyiv to work toward a ceasefire and “direct [US] engagement” with Moscow to end the Russia-Ukraine war. One week earlier, Republican House leader Kevin McCarthy’s no “blank check” for Ukraine comment raised questions about future congressional support for US assistance to that embattled country.
The letter, even though it has now been withdrawn, and McCarthy’s comment are unfortunate. Vladimir Putin will take encouragement from both as Russia wages its war. The suggestion of cracks in US backing for Ukraine will increase his incentives to continue fighting.
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Taliban facing backlash after U.S. drone strike against al-Qaeda leader
Posted on Monday October 3 2022
By Pamela Constable, The Washington Post, August 2, 2022
KABUL — The U.S. drone strike that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri here early Sunday also struck a humiliating blow against the Taliban regime, which had secretly hosted the aging extremist in the heart of the Afghan capital for months but failed to keep him safe. Just as the Taliban was preparing to celebrate its first year in power later this month, the attack has sparked a nationalistic backlash against the beleaguered regime at home and taunting comments on social media calling for revenge against the United States.
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Beneath Kabul’s surprising veneer of normalcy, a precarious balancing act
Posted on Monday October 3 2022
By Pamela Constable, The Washington Post, August 11, 2022
KABUL — An uneasy calm has settled over the Afghan capital this summer, a wary detente between the country’s stern religious rulers and a deflated, worried populace that is struggling to survive but also relieved that the punishing 20-year war involving foreign troops is over. Both sides have been trying to maintain a precarious balancing act. The Taliban regime, hoping not to further alienate foreign donors, has been sending out muddled signals rather than ironclad orders on controversial topics, especially women’s rights. The citizenry, hoping to get through another hard day without crossing an unpredictable red line, is mostly lying low. But as the first anniversary of the Taliban’s return to power approaches next week, the balancing act has become harder to sustain.
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Restore Reagan’s Military ‘Margin of Safety’
Posted on Wednesday September 7 2022
By Roger Zakheim, The Wall Street Journal, August 28, 2022
The U.S. faces the most daunting security landscape in 45 years. That’s no coincidence. Earlier this year Russia launched the bloodiest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, and this summer China publicly displayed plans to strangle or swallow the free people of Taiwan. Leaders in both countries examined the landscape and determined they could prevail in their ultimate goals, believing that the U.S. lacks the will to win.
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What is America’s end-game for the war in Ukraine?
Posted on Thursday July 28 2022
By Felicia Schwartz and Amy Kazmin, Financial Times, May 29, 2022
Shortly before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February, General Mark Milley, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave a pessimistic view of the prospects. One possible outcome, he told a closed congressional hearing, was that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours. Speaking on Monday, after three months in which the Ukrainians have not only fended off the initial assault on the capital but have held their own in a grinding ground war in the south-east of the country, Milley struck a very different note. The US, he said, would continue supporting the Ukrainian war effort because it was important to demonstrate that “the big can’t just destroy and invade the weak and the small”. And as for how the war might end, Milley said it was for the Ukrainians to decide “the end state inside the boundaries of Ukraine”…
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Collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces: An Assessment of the Factors That Led to Its Demise
Posted on Monday June 27 2022
By the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), May 2022
Since 2002, the United States has allocated nearly $90 billion in security sector assistance to the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF), with the goal of developing an independent, self-sustaining force capable of combating both internal and external threats. Yet, in August 2021, the ANDSF collapsed, paving the way for the Taliban to re-establish control of Afghanistan. The House Oversight and Reform and the House Armed Services Committees have directed SIGAR to examine the factors that contributed to the ANDSF’s collapse, including the underlying factors over the past 20 years that resulted in the underdevelopment of ANDSF military and police capabilities…
The objectives of this interim evaluation were to (1) determine the factors that contributed to the ANDSF’s collapse in August 2021; (2) assess any underlying factors over the 20-year security assistance mission that contributed to the underdevelopment of ANDSF capabilities and readiness; and (3) account for all U.S.-provided ANDSF equipment and U.S.-trained ANDSF personnel, where possible.
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The big emerging question: How to finance the net-zero transition in emerging markets
Posted on Monday June 13 2022
By Paul Bodnar, Jean Boivin, and Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Black Rock Investment Institute, October 2021
Climate change is a global crisis that requires a global response. Without a successful green transition everywhere, climate risk is unmanageable anywhere. Reaching the globally agreed climate goals requires speed – notably a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030, according to the UN. Emerging markets (EMs) account for an increasingly large share of global emissions – now 34%, or 65% including China – and much of the need for capital investment lies there. The choices these nations make as they build out their infrastructure will shape climate risk for all. But they are not able to meet their investment needs alone, and there is insufficient crossborder public or private finance arriving to fill the gap. It is therefore a matter of urgency that we address the massive shortfall of climate financing in these countries, in our view.
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USAID Development Assistance Counter Terrorism: A Guide to Programming
Posted on Friday May 6 2022
Below you will find the USAID document that Stacia George thought would provide a helpful background in advance of her May 2022 presentation on counter terrorism.
USAID Development Assistance Counter Terrorism: A Guide to Programming. October 2009. This guide discusses the implications for practitioners pursuing development objectives in the context of counter-extremism (CE). Because programming must reflect the distinctive features of the specific environment in which a particular group involved in Violent Extremism (VE) operates, this publication does not create a universal formula for designing and implementing programs that address CE. Instead it recommends a process that considers key questions and areas of inquiry to inform programming choices. The document specifies six steps to follow to identify key drivers and to assess how those drivers interact with each other. It also lays out twelve broad programming principles and a menu of development assistance (DA) interventions to help development practitioners respond to socioeconomic, political, and cultural drivers of violent extremism.
To read the Executive Summary of this guide, click here.
Understanding Central Asia’s Cautious Approach to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Posted on Friday April 1 2022
By Bruce Pannier, Foreign Policy Research Institute, March 25, 2022
The governments in Central Asia are treading cautiously in their remarks about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Central Asia, too, was part of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, and, when some in Central Asia see the news from Ukraine, they might wonder if they are seeing their own future.
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Ambassador Laura Kennedy: Article, Podcast, and Video
Posted on Friday April 1 2022
Below you will find an article, podcast, and video that Ambassador Laura Kennedy thought would provide a helpful background on the “Stans” in advance of her April 2022 presentation.
Dealing with Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Inheritance, Foreign Service Journal, March 30,2022. Ambassador Kennedy’s book review of Atomic Steppe: How Kazakhstan gave up the bomb by Togzhan Kassenova. To read the review, click here.
Establishment Of Dynastic Rule in Turkmenistan, Majlis Podcast on Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Feb 20, 2022. A discussion on what Turkmenistan can expect as the presidency is passed from father to son after the March 12 election. To listen to the podcast, click here.
Dynastic Succession in Turkmenistan: Will it Make Any Difference? A panel event hosted by the Central Asia Program at George Washington University on March 3, 2022. A discussion on the implications of the March 12 presidential election in Turkmenistan. To view this video click here.
Trump and Obama: The odd couple who broke ‘extended deterrence’ for the Indo-Pacific
Posted on Thursday March 3 2022
By David Cooper in The Hill on February 24, 2021
If there is an upside to nuclear weapons it is extended deterrence. This term refers to the “nuclear umbrella” that the United States promises to extend over its closest allies in Asia and Europe to protect against hostile nuclear powers who otherwise might be tempted to act coercively against them. Although extended deterrence is most often associated with NATO, it is also a critical feature of the American hub-and-spoke alliance system in Asia. Confidence in U.S. extended deterrence guarantees is part of the glue that holds these alliances together. It is also an essential requirement for preventing nuclear proliferation by reassuring U.S. allies that they do not need their own nuclear arsenals. This key role that extended deterrence plays in underwriting nuclear nonproliferation is too often under-appreciated…
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A Nuclear Cruise Missile Could Be Vital For Arms Control And Nonproliferation Efforts
Posted on Thursday March 3 2022
By David Cooper in Breaking Defense on September 7, 2021
A simmering debate over the fate of the new intermediate-range nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N), initiated by the Trump administration, has centered on whether the weapon is needed to strengthen deterrence in the face of escalating geostrategic competition with China and Russia. Because then-candidate Joe Biden rejected this argument, his administration’s recent decision to seek funding for the program took many by surprise, disappointing opponents and giving supporters new hope…
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Turning Away from the Middle East
Posted on Wednesday February 16 2022
By Steven Simon in the New York Review of Books, April 8, 2021.
The Biden administration will not have a lot of time for the Middle East. Its foreign policy agenda will more likely be shaped by the looming question of how to come to grips with Xi Jinping’s China.
To read the entire essay, click here.
Why is the U.S. Military Occupying Bases Across Africa?
Posted on Friday January 21 2022
By Eric Schewe in JSTOR Daily, April 11, 2018
In recent months, many Americans have been surprised to learn that the U.S. has an extensive military presence in Africa. In recent months, many Americans have been surprised to learn that the U.S. has an extensive military presence in Africa. An intelligence snafu over fitness tracker data produced by U.S. soldiers using Fitbits and other devices while running laps provided a clear snapshot of their deployments…
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