Restore Reagan’s Military ‘Margin of Safety’
Posted on Wednesday September 7 2022
By
The U.S. faces the most daunting security landscape in 45 years. That’s no coincidence. Earlier this year Russia launched the bloodiest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, and this summer China publicly displayed plans to strangle or swallow the free people of Taiwan. Leaders in both countries examined the landscape and determined they could prevail in their ultimate goals, believing that the U.S. lacks the will to win.
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What is America’s end-game for the war in Ukraine?
Posted on Thursday July 28 2022
By Felicia Schwartz and Amy Kazmin, Financial Times, May 29, 2022
Shortly before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February, General Mark Milley, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave a pessimistic view of the prospects. One possible outcome, he told a closed congressional hearing, was that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours. Speaking on Monday, after three months in which the Ukrainians have not only fended off the initial assault on the capital but have held their own in a grinding ground war in the south-east of the country, Milley struck a very different note. The US, he said, would continue supporting the Ukrainian war effort because it was important to demonstrate that “the big can’t just destroy and invade the weak and the small”. And as for how the war might end, Milley said it was for the Ukrainians to decide “the end state inside the boundaries of Ukraine”…
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Collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces: An Assessment of the Factors That Led to Its Demise
Posted on Monday June 27 2022
By the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), May 2022
Since 2002, the United States has allocated nearly $90 billion in security sector assistance to the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF), with the goal of developing an independent, self-sustaining force capable of combating both internal and external threats. Yet, in August 2021, the ANDSF collapsed, paving the way for the Taliban to re-establish control of Afghanistan. The House Oversight and Reform and the House Armed Services Committees have directed SIGAR to examine the factors that contributed to the ANDSF’s collapse, including the underlying factors over the past 20 years that resulted in the underdevelopment of ANDSF military and police capabilities…
The objectives of this interim evaluation were to (1) determine the factors that contributed to the ANDSF’s collapse in August 2021; (2) assess any underlying factors over the 20-year security assistance mission that contributed to the underdevelopment of ANDSF capabilities and readiness; and (3) account for all U.S.-provided ANDSF equipment and U.S.-trained ANDSF personnel, where possible.
To read the rest of the report, click here.
The big emerging question: How to finance the net-zero transition in emerging markets
Posted on Monday June 13 2022
By Paul Bodnar, Jean Boivin, and Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Black Rock Investment Institute, October 2021
Climate change is a global crisis that requires a global response. Without a successful green transition everywhere, climate risk is unmanageable anywhere. Reaching the globally agreed climate goals requires speed – notably a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030, according to the UN. Emerging markets (EMs) account for an increasingly large share of global emissions – now 34%, or 65% including China – and much of the need for capital investment lies there. The choices these nations make as they build out their infrastructure will shape climate risk for all. But they are not able to meet their investment needs alone, and there is insufficient crossborder public or private finance arriving to fill the gap. It is therefore a matter of urgency that we address the massive shortfall of climate financing in these countries, in our view.
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USAID Development Assistance Counter Terrorism: A Guide to Programming
Posted on Friday May 6 2022
Below you will find the USAID document that Stacia George thought would provide a helpful background in advance of her May 2022 presentation on counter terrorism.
USAID Development Assistance Counter Terrorism: A Guide to Programming. October 2009. This guide discusses the implications for practitioners pursuing development objectives in the context of counter-extremism (CE). Because programming must reflect the distinctive features of the specific environment in which a particular group involved in Violent Extremism (VE) operates, this publication does not create a universal formula for designing and implementing programs that address CE. Instead it recommends a process that considers key questions and areas of inquiry to inform programming choices. The document specifies six steps to follow to identify key drivers and to assess how those drivers interact with each other. It also lays out twelve broad programming principles and a menu of development assistance (DA) interventions to help development practitioners respond to socioeconomic, political, and cultural drivers of violent extremism.
To read the Executive Summary of this guide, click here.
Understanding Central Asia’s Cautious Approach to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Posted on Friday April 1 2022
By Bruce Pannier, Foreign Policy Research Institute, March 25, 2022
The governments in Central Asia are treading cautiously in their remarks about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Central Asia, too, was part of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, and, when some in Central Asia see the news from Ukraine, they might wonder if they are seeing their own future.
To read the entire article, click here.
Ambassador Laura Kennedy: Article, Podcast, and Video
Posted on Friday April 1 2022
Below you will find an article, podcast, and video that Ambassador Laura Kennedy thought would provide a helpful background on the “Stans” in advance of her April 2022 presentation.
Dealing with Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Inheritance, Foreign Service Journal, March 30,2022. Ambassador Kennedy’s book review of Atomic Steppe: How Kazakhstan gave up the bomb by Togzhan Kassenova. To read the review, click here.
Establishment Of Dynastic Rule in Turkmenistan, Majlis Podcast on Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Feb 20, 2022. A discussion on what Turkmenistan can expect as the presidency is passed from father to son after the March 12 election. To listen to the podcast, click here.
Dynastic Succession in Turkmenistan: Will it Make Any Difference? A panel event hosted by the Central Asia Program at George Washington University on March 3, 2022. A discussion on the implications of the March 12 presidential election in Turkmenistan. To view this video click here.
Trump and Obama: The odd couple who broke ‘extended deterrence’ for the Indo-Pacific
Posted on Thursday March 3 2022
By David Cooper in The Hill o
If there is an upside to nuclear weapons it is extended deterrence. This term refers to the “nuclear umbrella” that the United States promises to extend over its closest allies in Asia and Europe to protect against hostile nuclear powers who otherwise might be tempted to act coercively against them. Although extended deterrence is most often associated with NATO, it is also a critical feature of the American hub-and-spoke alliance system in Asia. Confidence in U.S. extended deterrence guarantees is part of the glue that holds these alliances together. It is also an essential requirement for preventing nuclear proliferation by reassuring U.S. allies that they do not need their own nuclear arsenals. This key role that extended deterrence plays in underwriting nuclear nonproliferation is too often under-appreciated…
To read the entire article, click here.
A Nuclear Cruise Missile Could Be Vital For Arms Control And Nonproliferation Efforts
Posted on Thursday March 3 2022
By David Cooper in Breaking Defense o
A simmering debate over the fate of the new intermediate-range nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N), initiated by the Trump administration, has centered on whether the weapon is needed to strengthen deterrence in the face of escalating geostrategic competition with China and Russia. Because then-candidate Joe Biden rejected this argument, his administration’s recent decision to seek funding for the program took many by surprise, disappointing opponents and giving supporters new hope…
To read the entire article, click here.
Turning Away from the Middle East
Posted on Wednesday February 16 2022
By Steven Simon in the New York Review of Books, April 8, 2021.
The Biden administration will not have a lot of time for the Middle East. Its foreign policy agenda will more likely be shaped by the looming question of how to come to grips with Xi Jinping’s China.
To read the entire essay, click here.
Why is the U.S. Military Occupying Bases Across Africa?
Posted on Friday January 21 2022
By Eric Schewe in JSTOR Daily, April 11, 2018
In recent months, many Americans have been surprised to learn that the U.S. has an extensive military presence in Africa. In recent months, many Americans have been surprised to learn that the U.S. has an extensive military presence in Africa. An intelligence snafu over fitness tracker data produced by U.S. soldiers using Fitbits and other devices while running laps provided a clear snapshot of their deployments…
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Does US military training incubate coups in Africa? The jury is still out.
Posted on Thursday January 20 2022
By September 28, 2020
Military officers overthrew Mali’s government in a coup d’état on August 18, 2020. Among the more worrying aspects of the coup is the fact that a number of the officers involved had received foreign training, most notably from the United States. In fact, this was the second time in eight years that US-trained officers in Mali had launched a coup…
To read the entire article, click here.
Responsible Statecraft Requires Remaking America’s Foreign Relations Tool Kit
Posted on Tuesday December 14 2021
By Gordon Adams in Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, February 25, 2021
American statecraft is in urgent need of change. The United States faces a more imposing set of international realities and challenges than any it has faced for the past 70 years, and its foreign policy institutions are poorly prepared to deal with them. Dreams of restoring past U.S. dominance as “leader of the free world” or sitting “at the head of the table,” as President Biden has put it, are today illusory, or even dangerous…
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Fixing US diplomacy will take more than re-arranging deck chairs – more like a new ship
Posted on Wednesday December 8 2021
By Gordon Adams in Responsible Statecraft, February 25, 2021
President Joe Biden has now stated several times that America is “back at the table” internationally, and will be “leading with diplomacy” in an effort to “earn back our position of trusted leadership.” But our civilian institutions are not ready for the challenge of demilitarizing U.S. foreign policy and engaging in a dramatically different world…
To read the entire article, click here.
A new world is dawning, and the US will no longer lead it
Posted on Wednesday December 8 2021
By Gordon Adams in The Conversation, June 26, 2018
From pulling out of treaties to denigrating allies to starting trade wars, the impulsive actions of President Donald Trump are upending the international order that has been in place since the end of World War II.
But even before Trump’s belligerent foreign policy positions, America had been gradually losing its dominant role in world affairs…
To read the entire article, click here.