Beginning in late summer, the Forum will be presenting a series of three events on Soft Power as a key ingredient of foreign relations: one event on the Whys of the matter, one on the Hows, and a third to give a living musical example of Soft Power in action, featuring musicians of three different cultures making music together.
Two Articles from Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman
Posted on Tuesday May 20 2025
“Can the United Nations Be Saved? The Case for Getting Back to Basics,” by Thant Myint-u, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2024.
The quest to fix the United Nations is almost as old as the organization itself. Eighty years ago, Allied leaders imagined a postwar order in which the great powers would together safeguard a permanent peace. The Security Council, dominated by its five veto wielding members—the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, France, and China—reflected the world as it was. Other, less hierarchical parts of the new UN system were meant to foster international cooperation across a host of issues: the global economy, public health, agriculture, education. The seeds of a future planetary government were evident from the start.
“To Survive Its Existential Crisis, the U.N. Must Learn From the Past,” by Richard Gowan, World Politics Review, April 16, 2025.
International organizations are an endangered species these days. U.S. President Donald Trump’s whirlwind of aid cuts and freezes has hit the United Nations and other multilateral institutions hard. The U.N. Secretariat and its agencies are already shedding significant numbers of staff and warning that they will be able to offer much less help to vulnerable people worldwide. In New York, diplomats fret that the U.S. could eventually defund the organization altogether—as one internal Trump administration memo reportedly under consideration proposes to do—or simply leave it, with no other country seemingly ready to take on its financial and political leadership role.
“The Best Way for America to Help the New Syria,” by Steven Simon and Joshua Landis, Foreign Affairs,January 3, 2025.
The shocking, sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime at the hands of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has prompted jubilation among Syrians who suffered 13 years of civil war and decades more of oppressive rule. But as a new government takes shape in Damascus, Syrians and foreign observers alike worry about how inclusive, representative, and Islamist it may be…
“Inside a City Swept by Roving Gunmen, Deadly Grudges and Fear,” by Christina Goldbaum, The New York Times, April 20, 2025.
The Syrian city was nearly empty in early March, its streets littered with burned cars. Shops were plundered, their windows shattered and locks shot off. Some buildings were little more than blackened walls and ash…
“The IMF and World Bank did well under the first Trump administration. Will they again?,” by Martin Mühleisen, The Atlantic Council, December 3, 2024.
For the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, the election of Donald Trump as US president in 2016 seemed to present an existential question. If their largest shareholder was going to be led by a tariff-wielding economic nationalist, what would it mean for the future of the multilateral financial architecture, of which they were a key part? The answer, it turned out, was more benign than what had been feared at the time. Like its predecessors, the Trump administration quickly realized that the two institutions provided the United States with financial leverage to pursue its global objectives, including by assisting friendly countries that would otherwise depend mostly on Chinese lenders for support…
“The international role of the euro and the dollar: Forever in the lead?” by Martin Mühleisen, The Atlantic Council, September 27, 2022.
The international monetary system has been surprisingly resilient over the past two years, considering the size of pandemic and geopolitical shocks that hit markets during this period. Liquidity injections by the major central banks helped stabilize economic activity and avoid disruptions to capital flows or foreign exchange markets. Major exchange rates remained range-bound throughout most of the crisis, even if the dollar has appreciated sharply in recent months. Volatility is likely to pick up as monetary policy responds to high inflation, but there should be no doubt that the dollar-based monetary order has withstood a major test during the past two years.
The state of conflict in 2025, according to experts at Davos
Posted on Wednesday March 5 2025
by John Letzing and Spencer Feingold. World Economic Forum. January 28, 2025.
“The headline for us this year is: Unpredictable.” When Comfort Ero’s organization compiled its annual Conflicts to Watch for 2024, the list ranged from the very prominent (Gaza) to the often overlooked (Sudan). 2025 has somehow added even more uncertainty to an already volatile situation, said Ero, the president and CEO of International Crisis Group, during a panel discussion at Davos 2025. Who would’ve imagined, she suggested, that active conversations about the subversion of international law might come to include Greenland or Panama? One other location that did not make Conflicts to Watch last year: Libya.
“All-in On the U.S.-Korea Relationship – More Jobs, More Investment, More Prosperity,” by Henry Haggard, Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 7, 2024.
Korean companies have invested 114 billion dollars in the United States in the last three years, creating tens of thousands of American jobs and helping to rebuild our manufacturing base in the United States. Korea, Korean companies, and the Korean people have put “all their chips” on the United States and the benefits for our country are many…
“Korean Support for Kyiv Would Transform Ukraine and Korea’s Global Role,” by Henry Haggard, Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 28, 2024.
North Korea sends ammunition to Russia for use in Ukraine, Putin travels to Pyongyang and concludes a comprehensive strategic partnership, and North Korean special forces deploy to support Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Is there any doubt what Pyongyang and Moscow are up to? It is now abundantly clear that Russia has chosen its partner on the peninsula, and it is not South Korea. Now is the time for South Korea to acknowledge this fact and stand with the Ukrainian people, the United States, and Europe…
“U.S.-Korea Ties Hinge on Counter China Efforts, Energy and Shipbuilding Sector Cooperation,” by Henry Haggard, Law Times, February 12, 2024.
For Korea to successfully navigate relations with the second Trump administration, South Korea and South Korean companies should highlight how they can help the United States compete with China, especially in the shipbuilding and energy sectors and through increased support of Ukraine. Serving in the last months of Trump’s first administration’s NSC, a singular focus on China directed every action…
It Is Not Too Late: A Case for Long-Range Strikes Against Russia
Posted on Monday January 6 2025
By Douglas Lute, Council on Foreign Relations, November 26, 2024.
With President-elect Donald Trump set to take office on January 20, little time remains to make a definitively positive impact on the war in Ukraine. The Joe Biden administration can accelerate authorized and appropriated military support over the next sixty days, reducing the backlog of promised capabilities. American contractors can be deployed to Ukraine to sustain U.S. systems. Yet with two months remaining, the oft-repeated line that there is no silver bullet for Biden to dramatically change the momentum of the war rings true—with one potential exception: a campaign of long-range strikes to isolate the Russian army occupying Ukraine.
“Existentially important politics,” by James Bosworth, Latin America Risk Report, December 26, 2023.
In recent years, we don’t get many boring elections in the hemisphere. Instead, it feels like every president is elected in a moment of crisis with a mandate to change the direction of the country. In the space between elections, political systems experience existential clashes because they know the next election will also be a fight over potential radical change.
“Trump vs Sheinbaum on Tariffs,” by James Bosworth, Latin America Risk Report, November 26, 2024.
A big risk to North America is that Claudia Sheinbaum calls Donald Trump’s bluff. Last night, President-elect Trump launched the first salvo in his planned trade war, announcing that one of his first executive orders will enact 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada. He will also implement 10% tariffs on goods from China. The reasons given are migration and fentanyl but understood was the idea of Trump completing a campaign promise to be tariff man.
“New Supply ‘Front’ for Afghan War Runs Across Russia, Georgia and the ‘Stans,” by Bill Marmon, The European Institute, February – March 2010.
The U.S. engagement in Afghanistan, including the 30,000 “plus-up” currently underway, represents one of the most difficult logistical challenges in the annals of war – a challenge even for the United States, which is the world champion of supply solutions. Afghanistan is harder than the Vietnam “land war in Asia” or the Berlin airlift or Iraq I and II. These previous engagements, although difficult logistically, pale in comparison to the task of supplying 100,000 troops and as many contractors in Afghanistan over nine years and counting. Landlocked, mountainous, beset by civil war, banditry and extreme underdevelopment, Afghanistan is surrounded by a clutch of hostile, suspicious, barely functioning sovereignties.
“Central Asia’s Northern Exposure,” by Andrew C. Kuchins and Thomas Sanderson, The New York Times, August 2009.
Russian agreement to allow U.S. military over-flight rights to ferry lethal goods to Afghanistan was one of the signal achievements of the recent meetings in Moscow between Presidents Barack Obama and Dimtri Medvedev. Last month in Moscow, Russian officials told us that Afghanistan was the area where American and Russian interests are most closely aligned, and cooperation on stabilizing Afghanistan may be the most promising area to “reset” our bilateral relationship.
“Northern Distribution Network,” by Center for Strategic and International Studies.
As the U.S. presence in Afghanistan increases, its demand for non-military supplies in 2010-2011 will be 200-300% more than the 2008 baseline. To accommodate this increase and address ongoing concerns with Pakistani supply lines, U.S. planners have opened the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a series of commercially-based logistical arrangements connecting Baltic and Caspian ports with Afghanistan via Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus. In addition to NDN, Iran and China are also considered possible transit states.
“War Unbound: Gaza, Ukraine, and the Breakdown of International Law,” by Oona A. Hathaway, Foreign Affairs, April 23, 2024.
Hamas’s attack on Israel and Israel’s response to it have been a disaster for civilians. In its October 7 massacre, Hamas sought out unarmed Israeli civilians, including women, children, and the elderly, killing close to 1,200 people and taking around 240 hostages. Israel’s subsequent air and ground campaign in Gaza has, as of March 2024, killed more than 30,000 people, an estimated two-thirds of whom were women and children. The Israeli offensive has also displaced some two million people (more than 85 percent of the population of Gaza), left more than a million people at risk of starvation, and damaged or destroyed some 150,000 civilian buildings. Today, there is no functional hospital left in northern Gaza. Hamas, Israel maintains, uses civilian structures as shields, operating in them or in tunnels beneath them—perhaps precisely because such buildings have been considered off-limits for military operations under international law.
“In Pursuit of the Possible: Addressing Population Flows in the Americas,” remarks by Filippo Grandi, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees at Georgetown University, Washington, DC, June 3, 2024.
Having been a student myself in Jesuit schools, it means a lot to be here for the first time! It is also a significant moment to be speaking at a university campus – and such a prestigious one at that. Complex and controversial as this may be, what is happening in universities in the United States and around the world proves that young people remain as engaged in international events as ever. This is good, because — and forgive an older man’s remark — there was a perception that such an interest, so prominent in my own youth, was fading. But thankfully and obviously it is not — whether it is about conflicts, climate, rights, justice and other causes. And this is vital if we want the world to remain a vibrant, responsive place at a time of such steep global challenges.
“Success in the Struggle against the People’s Republic of China,” by Dr. John Lee and Dr. Lavina Lee, Hudson Institute, June 2023.
In April 2023, the Australian government released the officially commissioned but independently produced Defence Strategic Review. Intended to assist the government of Australia with its strategic and defense policies over the next decade and beyond, the report offered the fundamental assessment that the Indo-Pacific region “faces increasing competition that operates on multiple levels—economic, military, strategic and diplomatic—all interwoven and all framed by an intense contest of values and narratives.”
“A Paradigm Shift in America’s Asia Policy,” by Dr. John Lee, Foreign Affairs,
n 1988, U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz embarked on a three-week tour of Asia, stopping in Hong Kong and mainland China, Indonesia, Japan, the Marshall Islands, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand. Shultz sat through long meetings to assure his hosts of Washington’s enduring friendship and interest in the region—engaging in what the diplomat Nicholas Burns described in Foreign Affairs in 2021 as “weeding, watering, and watching over the diplomatic garden.”
“China Can’t Evade the Iron Laws of Economics,” by John Lee, Wall Street Journal,
Xi Jinping seeks “high quality” rather than “high speed” growth, he told the Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum, held last week to decide the country’s economic policy over the next five years. Some observers say this is simply rationalizing the Chinese economy’s problems—enormous government and corporate debt, an inflated property sector, and disappointing growth in private and household consumption—which have gotten worse under Mr. Xi’s watch. Others counter that Mr. Xi is doing the right thing by focusing on high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, aeronautics and renewables to underpin a high-quality growth model.
“The ‘Climate Crisis’ Fades Out,” by Steven E. Koonin, Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2023.
The 2015 Paris Agreement aspired to “reduce the risks and impacts of climate change” by eliminating greenhouse-gas emissions in the latter half of this century. The centerpiece of the strategy was a global transition to low-emission energy systems. After nearly a decade, it’s timely to ask how that energy transition is progressing and how it might fare in the future… To continue reading, click here.
“Our unsettled climate future,” by Steven E. Koonin, Schweizer Monat, April 22, 2024.
Human influences on the climate are physically small – they shift the planet’s energy flows by only about 1 percent. That doesn’t mean we can ignore them, because the climate system is sensitive. But it does exacerbate the challenge of understanding what future climates will be…To continue reading, click here.
“Will Climate Change Really Put New York Underwater?” by Steven E. Koonin, Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2023.
A recent National Aeronautics and Space Administration report yet again raises alarm that New Yorkers are about to be inundated by rapidly rising seas. But a review of the data suggests that such warnings need to be taken with more than a few grains of sea salt… To continue reading, click here.
Five Articles from Elizabeth Cameron
Posted on Tuesday July 23 2024
“National Security Memorandum on UnitedStates Global Leadership to Strengthen the International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological Preparedness,” by US White House, National Security Memorandum, January 21, 2021.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a grave reminder that biological threats, whether naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberate, can have significant and potentially existential consequences for humanity. This memorandum reaffirms Executive Order 13747 of November 4, 2016, which made clear that these threats pose global challenges that require global solutions… To continue reading, click here.
“A bipartisan approach to pandemic security? It’s within reach,” by Beth Cameron, Gary Edson, and J. Stephen Morrison, STAT News, February 27, 2023.
Americans should be worried — and hopeful — that the Biden administration has announced it will end the Covid-19 public health emergency in May. Worried because the United States has not yet achieved pandemic security, despite decades of investment and three years of Covid-19, which has revealed how much American pandemic security rests on democratic and civic strength, both currently in short supply… To continue reading, click here.
“Why the World Needs Its Own Immune System,” by Atul Gawande, The New York Times, December 25, 2023.
The thing that has surprised me most since I began my job leading foreign assistance for global health at the U.S. Agency for International Development is how much emergencies have defined my work… To continue reading, click here.
“A new initiative will help governors and local leaders fight the next pandemic,” by Asa Hutchinson and Deval Patrick, STAT News, June 6, 2024.
No one knows when the next pandemic will sweep across the United States. It could be bird flu, or an as-yet unknown infection. But after living through the Covid-19 pandemic, which claimed more than 1 million American lives, left more than 300,000 children orphaned, and shut down workplaces and schools, U.S. citizens should demand that the nation does better next time… To continue reading, click here.
“The United States Needs A Better Testing Playbook For Future Public Health Emergencies,” by Jennifer B. Nuzzo, Aquielle Person, Elizabeth Cameron, Jill Taylor, Ewa King, Mara Aspinall, and Scott Becker, Health Affairs, June 2024.
The absence of a comprehensive national playbook for developing and deploying testing has hindered the United States’ ability to rapidly suppress recent biological emergencies (for example, the COVID-19 pandemic and outbreaks of mpox). We describe here the Testing Playbook for Biological Emergencies, a national testing playbook we developed… To continue reading, click here.
3 Articles from Ambassador Lawrence Butler
Posted on Friday June 28 2024
“NATO Ready for Battle, but Lacks Stamina, Report Finds,” by Laura Heckman, National Defense, June 11, 2024.
Since NATO’s adoption of a “back to the future” strategy at its Madrid Summit two years ago on the heels of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, the alliance has made significant strides toward forward defense and deterrence, and a recent report said the alliance is prepared for war — as long as it’s short…
“Nato’s Washington summit will need to tackle Russian sabotage and myriad security threats,” by Alexander Gilder, The Conversation, June 26, 2024.
The leaders of Nato member states will meet in Washington DC in a few weeks and one of the topics of discussion will be how to tackle escalating incidents of Russian sabotage. Ahead of the summit on July 9-11, there has been increased Russian intelligence activity across Nato member states. The Dutch National Security Agency warned that it is possible Russia has orchestrated various arson and sabotage attacks in the UK, Poland, Sweden and Germany…
“The Global War on Terror and Diplomatic Practice,” by Larry Butler, The Foreign Service Journal, September, 2021.
Twenty years ago, jetliners crashing into New York City’s twin towers and the Pentagon shocked America out of its post–Cold War complacency, ushering in the global war on terror (GWOT) and a surge in international support for the United States. A senior State Department official, Assistant Secretary for Diplomatic Security Francis X. Taylor, speaking to the American Bar Association in late 2002, answered a question on how long the war on terror would last: “As long as it takes. Years, maybe decades…”
“The Middle East and the President’s Sweeping Power Over Self-Defense,” by Jack Goldsmith, Lawfare, October 23, 2023.
The Middle East may be on the verge of large-scale war, and the U.S. military is literally on the firing line. Late last week, the USS Carney intercepted and destroyed three missiles and several drones fired from Yemen even though it did not know where the missiles were headed. “We cannot say for certain what these missiles and drones were targeting, but they were launched heading north along the Red Sea potentially towards targets in Israel,”said Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder. “This action was a demonstration of the integrated air and missile defense architecture that we built in the Middle East and that we are prepared to utilize whenever necessary to protect our partners and our interests,” he added.
“Can Biden Sidestep Congress on an Iran Nuclear Deal?” by Jack Goldsmith, Lawfare, June 21, 2023.
The Biden administration might soon reach an agreement of sorts with Iran that would seek, among other things, to curb Iran’s nuclear weapons program. A major complication is that the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) requires the president to “transmit” an “agreement” relating to the nuclear program of Iran to Congress, and then establishes a review period during which (a) the president may not exercise his sanctions-waiving authority, and (b) Congress can vote on the agreement. News reports suggest that the Biden team is laying the groundwork to argue that an informal deal with Iran does not constitute an “agreement” and thus does not trigger any reporting duty under the INARA.
“Presidential Control Over International Law,” by Curtis A. Bradley & Jack L. Goldsmith, Harvard Law Review, Volume 131, March, 2018.
Two of President Barack Obama’s most important foreign policy accomplishments were the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which aims to lower greenhouse gas emissions, and the Iran Nuclear Agreement, which lifted international and domestic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran’s dismantling of its nuclear weapons development program. President Obama made both agreements unilaterally without seeking congressional approval. His successor, President Donald Trump, came into office as a critic of the agreements. He, too, acted unilaterally — this time moving to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. He has also claimed the authority to unilaterally terminate the Iran deal, but to date he has not done so, in part because President Obama’s alteration of the status quo makes it difficult to terminate the deal without harming U.S. interests.
Beginning in late summer, the Forum will be presenting a series of three events on Soft Power as a key ingredient of foreign relations: one event on the Whys of the matter, one on the Hows, and a third to give a living musical example of Soft Power in action, featuring musicians of three different […]
“Can the United Nations Be Saved? The Case for Getting Back to Basics,” by Thant Myint-u, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2024. The quest to fix the United Nations is almost as old as the organization itself. Eighty years ago, Allied leaders imagined a postwar order in which the great powers would together safeguard a permanent peace. […]
“The Best Way for America to Help the New Syria,” by Steven Simon and Joshua Landis, Foreign Affairs, January 3, 2025. The shocking, sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime at the hands of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has prompted jubilation among Syrians who suffered 13 years of civil war and decades more of oppressive […]
“The IMF and World Bank did well under the first Trump administration. Will they again?,” by Martin Mühleisen, The Atlantic Council, December 3, 2024. For the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, the election of Donald Trump as US president in 2016 seemed to present an existential question. If their largest shareholder was going to be […]
The state of conflict in 2025, according to experts at Davos
Posted on Wednesday March 5
by John Letzing and Spencer Feingold. World Economic Forum. January 28, 2025. “The headline for us this year is: Unpredictable.” When Comfort Ero’s organization compiled its annual Conflicts to Watch for 2024, the list ranged from the very prominent (Gaza) to the often overlooked (Sudan). 2025 has somehow added even more uncertainty to an already […]
“All-in On the U.S.-Korea Relationship – More Jobs, More Investment, More Prosperity,” by Henry Haggard, Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 7, 2024. Korean companies have invested 114 billion dollars in the United States in the last three years, creating tens of thousands of American jobs and helping to rebuild our manufacturing base in the United […]
It Is Not Too Late: A Case for Long-Range Strikes Against Russia
Posted on Monday January 6
By Douglas Lute, Council on Foreign Relations, November 26, 2024. With President-elect Donald Trump set to take office on January 20, little time remains to make a definitively positive impact on the war in Ukraine. The Joe Biden administration can accelerate authorized and appropriated military support over the next sixty days, reducing the backlog of […]
“Existentially important politics,” by James Bosworth, Latin America Risk Report, December 26, 2023. In recent years, we don’t get many boring elections in the hemisphere. Instead, it feels like every president is elected in a moment of crisis with a mandate to change the direction of the country. In the space between elections, political systems […]
“New Supply ‘Front’ for Afghan War Runs Across Russia, Georgia and the ‘Stans,” by Bill Marmon, The European Institute, February – March 2010. The U.S. engagement in Afghanistan, including the 30,000 “plus-up” currently underway, represents one of the most difficult logistical challenges in the annals of war – a challenge even for the United States, […]
“War Unbound: Gaza, Ukraine, and the Breakdown of International Law,” by Oona A. Hathaway, Foreign Affairs, April 23, 2024. Hamas’s attack on Israel and Israel’s response to it have been a disaster for civilians. In its October 7 massacre, Hamas sought out unarmed Israeli civilians, including women, children, and the elderly, killing close to 1,200 […]
“Success in the Struggle against the People’s Republic of China,” by Dr. John Lee and Dr. Lavina Lee, Hudson Institute, June 2023. In April 2023, the Australian government released the officially commissioned but independently produced Defence Strategic Review. Intended to assist the government of Australia with its strategic and defense policies over the next decade […]
“The ‘Climate Crisis’ Fades Out,” by Steven E. Koonin, Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2023. The 2015 Paris Agreement aspired to “reduce the risks and impacts of climate change” by eliminating greenhouse-gas emissions in the latter half of this century. The centerpiece of the strategy was a global transition to low-emission energy systems. After nearly […]
“National Security Memorandum on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological Preparedness,” by US White House, National Security Memorandum, January 21, 2021. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a grave reminder that biological threats, whether naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberate, can have significant and […]
“NATO Ready for Battle, but Lacks Stamina, Report Finds,” by Laura Heckman, National Defense, June 11, 2024. Since NATO’s adoption of a “back to the future” strategy at its Madrid Summit two years ago on the heels of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, the alliance has made significant strides toward forward defense and deterrence, and […]
“The Middle East and the President’s Sweeping Power Over Self-Defense,” by Jack Goldsmith, Lawfare, October 23, 2023. The Middle East may be on the verge of large-scale war, and the U.S. military is literally on the firing line. Late last week, the USS Carney intercepted and destroyed three missiles and several drones fired from Yemen even though […]